Closing Paris: the rebound stops

FASHION

The CAC40, which was up nearly 1% mid-session, back in the 6,600 area, limited its rebound to just 0.12% at 6,555 points at the close … Political uncertainties, monetary conditions, inflation and conflict in Ukraine remain very present in the minds of investors, despite the slight relief provided by the results of the first round of the presidential elections in France, symbolized by a slight easing of long rates.

ECO AND CURRENCIES

Inflation, will be just under discussion from tomorrow Tuesday, with the consumer price index in the US for the month of March 2022 … The consensus is housed at + 1.1% compared to the previous month and + 8.4% year over year year. Excluding food and energy this time around, CPI is expected to rise 0.5% compared to February 2022 and 6.6% yoy. Investors will also check their March fiscal balance tomorrow evening.

The Fed is expected to unveil two consecutive half-point rate hikes in May and June to counter inflation, according to economists interviewed by Reuters, who also estimate a 40% chance of a US recession next year. While unemployment has fallen to all-time lows, but inflation is at its 40-year high in the US as energy, commodity and food prices soar, observers therefore believe the US central bank needs to act quickly.
According to this Reuters poll conducted between 4 and 8 April among more than 100 economists, the fed funds rate would therefore be raised to 1.25-1.50% at the end of the June monetary meeting. The overwhelming majority of economists expect an increase of 50 basis points in May and 56 of which on an equivalent increase in June. The Fed could therefore opt for more traditional quarter-point hikes in the second half, which would eventually bring the federal funds rate to 2-2.25% at the end of the year.

The risks are real, however, given the speed of the expected tightening … Economists estimate the likelihood of a US recession at 25% within one year and 40% within two years. They therefore expect a further slowdown in rate hikes in 2023, for a total of 50 basis points for the year. US inflation is not expected to return to the 2% target before 2024. It should have peaked at 7.9% in the first quarter of 2022 and averaged 6.8% for the full year. The unemployment rate is expected to return to an average of 3.5% next year and remain stable in 2024, according to these specialists. Economists have finally adjusted their growth forecasts downwards, forecasting GDP growth of 3.3% this year and 2.2% in 2023.

With regard to the tricolor presidential elections, the French will therefore be called upon to decide, on April 24, on the “remake” of 2017 between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron in a very different context this time … Meanwhile, the two candidates have each improved his own score compared to five years ago, the duel promising to be much tighter this time according to the latest polls.
Furthermore, the week that is starting will be shortened on the European markets by the long Easter weekend of 4 days as they will close on Thursday evening before reopening the following Tuesday … Meanwhile the euro is stable at 1.09 dollars. Oil is camped at $ 100 for Brent.

GROWING VALUES

Sword: + 8% with Fermentalg, Cibox

Dassault Aviation: + 6% with ADP (+ 5.6%) and Nicox

Société Générale (+ 5%). The Rossoneri bank announced this morning the sale of its banking and insurance activities in the country, as well as the signing of an agreement to sell its entire stake in Rosbank and its insurance branches in Russia to Interros Capital, the former shareholder of Rosbank. With this agreement, concluded after several weeks of intense work, the Group would withdraw effectively and orderly from Russia, guaranteeing continuity for its employees and customers.

Dried: + 4.5% with Genfit, Gensight, Klepierre, Coface, Carmila, Haulotte

Eiffage: + 3% with Infotel, AXA

Voltalia: + 2.5% with Argan, Quadient, Boiron, Vinci, Eutelsat, Getlink, Thales and Innate

BNP Paribas: + 1.5% with SergeFerrari, Air France KLM

TF1 (+ 1.5%) and the Altice Group thus announce the signing of agreements among themselves relating to this sale of the TFX channel. The final completion of this transaction is subject in particular to the authorization of the competent authorities (the Competition Authority and Arcom) and to the completion of the merger project between the TF1 Group and the M6 ​​Group. The TFX channel will therefore remain fully controlled by the TF1 Group throughout 2022.

Airbus (+ 1%) delivered 142 aircraft in the first quarter and won 83 net orders, the European aircraft manufacturer said Friday evening. In this first quarter of fiscal 2022, the group recorded 253 gross orders, but this figure drops to 83, taking into account 170 cancellations in the period. Deliveries for the quarter included 58 A321 NEOs and 49 A320 NEOs, as well as 14 A350s. Among the latter, however, there are 2 A350s officially delivered to the Russian company Aeroflot, but which remain in Toulouse due to the European sanctions against Russia. In March alone, Airbus delivered 63 aircraft and secured 104 new orders. But the group also recorded 63 cancellations for the A330s ordered by the Malaysian airline Air Asia X, now in trouble. Airbus (bis): the Defense and Space division acquires DSI Datensicherheit GmbH (DSI DS), a German company that provides encryption and communication systems for space, air, sea and land, certified by the Federal Office for Information Security (BSI ). This acquisition follows a longstanding partnership between the two companies. DSI DS will be wholly owned by Airbus Defense and Space GmbH and will operate under a new name: Aerospace Data Security GmbH.

FALLING VALUES

Forsee: -4% followed by Synergie, Rallye (-3.5%) and DS

Hermes: -3% with Eramet, Antin

STEF: -2.5% followed by CGG, Aubay, S30, Beneteau, Aramis, Dior, LVMH before tomorrow’s quarterly

Schneider: -1.5% with Somfy, Neoen, Euronext, Interparfums, Worldline

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