Key points of the article:
|
Prejudice |
Resistence |
Support |
Note |
|
|
AUD / JPY |
bullish |
86.06 |
81.55 |
|
|
AUD / USD |
bullish |
0.755 |
0.699 |
|
|
EUR / AUD |
bearish |
1.62 |
1.4425 |
|
|
EUR / CHF |
bearish |
1.0605 |
0.978 |
|
|
EUR / GBP |
Neutral |
0.85 |
0.7565 |
Breaking support 0.8280 |
|
EUR / JPY |
bearish |
133.5 |
121.7 |
Try MM200 |
|
EUR / USD |
bearish |
1.15 |
1.0766 |
|
|
GBP / JPY |
Neutral |
158.25 |
148.95 |
|
|
GBP / USD |
bearish |
1.3645 |
1.314 |
|
|
NZD / USD |
Neutral |
0.722 |
0.663 |
Try MM200 |
|
USD / CHF |
Neutral |
0.9368 |
0.909 |
|
|
USD / CAD |
Neutral |
1.2957 |
1,265 |
Oblique weekly in support |
|
USD / JPY |
Neutral |
116.36 |
113.5 |
Euro falls early, commodity currencies acclaim
The euro fell to a 22-month low against the dollar, as commodity-related currencies hit multi-month highs as the war in Ukraine sent oil prices soar and fuel fears of oil, a season-inflationary shock which could affect Europe.
The euro lost as much as 1% to $ 1.0822 in Asian trading, the lowest level since May 2020, before stabilizing around $ 1.0880 at the start of European trading. It has fallen by nearly 4% since Russia began what it calls a “special military operation” in Ukraine.
It also fell below par against the Swiss franc for the first time since the Swiss abandoned their peg to the euro in 2015, reaching 0.9970.
Oil futures, which jumped more than 20% last week, are at highs not seen since 2008 as the US and Europe consider banning Russian imports. Wheat reached its highest level in 14 years.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars, currencies linked to commodities, continue to rise to the highest levels of the last four months.
The crossing of gas pipelines from Russia to Ukraine only indicates how much of Europe has become dependent on Russian energy and is not something that can be quickly reversed. The prospects for European growth are much bleaker.
The euro fell to a 15-month low against the yen on Monday and hit its mid-2016 low against the pound. Against the Australian dollar, the euro lost more than 10% in about a month.
Fighting in Ukraine intensified over the weekend and ceasefire attempts to allow civilians to evacuate the besieged city of Mariupol appear to have failed so far.
The conflict and harsh Western sanctions against Russia have caused Russian assets to collapse and soaring prices for Russian exports such as precious metals, oil and gas, at a time when the global economy was already grappling with inflationary pressures. . The Russian ruble was barely trading in the interbank market as clearing houses stopped settling transactions. It was last trading in free fall at 126.50 per dollar.
All in all, this is another major supply shock beyond the persistent impacts of COVID, with severe inflationary consequences.
The pound was also weighed down by the gloomy outlook for Europe and dropped to a two-month low against the dollar.
Elsewhere in Asia, the Indian rupee has hit a record high as high oil prices are likely to widen trade and current account deficits. The South Korean won fell to its lowest level in 21 months.
The US dollar index reached a 22-month high at 99.220. Last week’s data showed that US unemployment fell to a two-year low of 3.8%, while this week’s inflation data is expected to show stratospheric annual growth of 7.9%.
The European Central Bank meets on Thursday.
AUD / USD: The Australian dollar rises towards 0.7500
The Australian dollar, recommended for purchase on Thursdays, is heading towards its target above 0.7500. The 13 and 34 period moving averages are trending positively and the Aussie has broken out of its 200 period moving average. The pair broke above an intermediate resistance at 0.7370 confirming its positive momentum.
A return below the previous resistance at 0.7280 which becomes support according to the polarity principle would invalidate this positive reading.
Evolution of the Australian dollar against the US dollar in daily data:
