how to avoid the pitfalls of the year 2022

Epidemic recovery, French elections, return of inflation … At a time when financial markets are breaking records, 2022 promises to be complicated and risks being the year of all uncertainties.

It starts with a bang for 2022. At the beginning of the year, financial indices are reaching all-time highs. In Paris, last Wednesday, the CAC 40 climbed 7,383 points, a new closing recordin the crowd for three very favorable days … before falling back on Thursday.

Across the Atlantic, the S&P 500 (over 4,700 points) and the Dow Jones (over 36,200 points) are also moving to record highs as Apple leaps to the top of the ratings. The American firm became the first company to exceed $ 3 trillion in market capitalization.

However, will the increase continue in 2022? Possible, according to the strategists of the Socit Generale, Roland Kayolan and Charles Boissezon, who plan in 2022 a solid year for European equities, with a CAC 40 close to 7500 points. To maintain their momentum, however, the financial markets will have to find answers three big questions.

Uncertainty n1: which epidemic rebound?

The first is health: Omicron announces the end of the pandemic or simply its extension? While France crossed the mark of 300,000 new cases in one day, the markets appear to have decided on January 5. Studies are quite encouraging that the Omicron variant leads to less severe forms than the Delta variant. Furthermore, the vaccines are still effective, comment analysts at Saxo Bank, for whom a new sudden stop of the economy seems unlikely. For investors, the pandemic is already a thing of the past.

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Uncertainty n2: what global growth?

The 2m shadow point it’s about the real economy: how big will the post-covid recovery be? For Nicolas Chron, a strategist at Zonebourse, 2022 will be a year in line with the big rebound of 2021. According to forecasts by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), world gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by another 4.5% in 2022. A rate lower than the 5.6% growth recorded in 2021, but which remains clearly above the average of the last 20 years, the analyst recalls.

Already in the third quarter of 2021, the excellent financial results published by the companies had exceeded analysts’ expectations, at the same time arousing euphoria in the markets. Société Générale, for example, announced a quarterly profit of 1.6 billion euros, the best result in its history. If next quarter results aren’t too affected by rising energy prices and the Omicron variant, markets could remain bullish in the first half of 2022, believes Nicolas Chron.

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Uncertainty # 3: inflation crazy or under control?

The third question it’s monetary: Will central banks be able to curb inflation without causing the markets to panic? The evolution of inflation, which should continue to surprise the rise, and the reaction of central banks to this phenomenon will be central themes for the markets and the main concern of investorspredicts AllianzGI, which does not rule out an area of ​​turbulence in the first half of 2022.

Major fundraisers are expected to gradually reduce their support for the economy over the coming months. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is therefore considering three rate hikes in 2022. The European Central Bank (ECB) wants to be more conciliatory: it has already ensured that there will be no sudden rate hikes in 2022.

However, the risk of a serious monetary policy error cannot be ruled out. Too fast or too strong an action would weigh on still fragile growth and risky assets like equities, deciphered by AFP Franck Dixmier, director of bond management at Allianz Global Investors.

10% fluctuations expected.

Here at: many questions and few clear answers. So what impact for investors? 2022 will be a year characterized by greater volatility on the financial markets, says Nicolas Chron. The analyst expects a year of ups and downswith fluctuations of plus or minus 10%. In 2022, investors will need to be more agile. It will have to be pragmatic and know how to quickly take your earnings in the event of a price increasepriest Nicolas Cron.

Investments: More than one in two French people is now ready to lose to earn more

2022 therefore promises to be a year full of twists and turns for stockbrokers. However, Timer the market, or finding the perfect moment to acquire a share, is often complicated. This is also why 89.4% of people lose money on the stock market according to the Financial Markets Authority (MFA).

As an individual, identifying which companies and industries will appreciate is very complicated. Compared to a professional investor, you have less time and resources to devote to them, and most importantly, you don’t have access to the freshest and most complete financial information possible, explained Laurent Puget, president of the asset management firm of OTEA Capital. Then how to limit the risk of loss?

Stock market: the highs and the flops of the CAC 40 in 2021

How to survive the crash

There will be a crash. There is always one. The question is when. And that, no one can say for sure, says Matthias Baccino, France general manager of Trade Republic, a new German broker. He prefers to register his investment on the stock market for a long time. 2022 is the year of all uncertainties. To escape market fluctuations, savers have a vested interest invest small amounts the hard way.

It is the technique of average dollar cost (DCA), which provides for the investment of a fixed amount at regular intervals. One of the most proven strategies for obtaining satisfactory gains while limiting risks. According to estimates by the MFA, a diversified equity portfolio therefore provides a return of 5% to 7% per year over a period of 15 to 20 years.

To take advantage of market growth over time, investors may also be interested megatrendcontinues Matthias Baccino, that is to say to bet on these emerging trends as the cyberspace, the water and the Automationwhich we already know will have a lasting effect over the next few years.

Online stock market: which bank or broker to choose?

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